Nagoya Grampus 2-1 Gamba Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 6 May 2026

📅06/05/2026 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.26
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
3.25
6+ Goals
11%
12.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 29% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
44%
-5.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+4.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.4pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 34%
+2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.38/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.24
-20% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
364 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 79%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
17.4 Crosses 15.8
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nagoya Grampus
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Gamba Osaka
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.98 xG 1.53
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
276 Passes 453
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
15.02.2026 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
25.10.2025 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-2 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
12.04.2025 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 2-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
23.10.2024 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 3-2 HT 2-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
11.05.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-1 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
21.10.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-1 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nagoya Grampus
2-1
AWAY Gamba Osaka
1.53 xG 0.82
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
280 Passes 443
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
FAQ Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Nagoya Grampus edged past Gamba Osaka 2-1 in the Japan - J1 League on 6 May 2026. Half-time: 2-0.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Nagoya Grampus had 41% of the ball to Gamba Osaka's 59%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.53 to 0.82.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gamba Osaka lead the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Nagoya Grampus and 1.33 for Gamba Osaka.

What was the final score of Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka?

Nagoya Grampus 2-1 Gamba Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 06/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nagoya Grampus win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Nagoya Grampus 38%, draw 27%, Gamba Osaka 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nagoya Grampus), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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