Libertad 2-1 LDU Quito — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 15 Dec 2025

📅15/12/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
4.65
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
59%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.81
No
45%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
5%
X/2
19%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
31%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
18%
-0.5pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.3pp
59%
Away Win
58%
+0.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.5pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY LDU Quito EU Bookmakers 62%
-2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
1.54/1.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.04
+15% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -37%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
236 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 80%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.5
23.2 Crosses 20.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
0W-1D-5L
AWAY LDU Quito
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.04 xG 1.07
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
244 Passes 321
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2025 LDU Quito LDU Quito 3-1 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
13.09.2025 Libertad Libertad 0-1 HT 0-1 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
20.05.2025 LDU Quito LDU Quito 1-1 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
25.08.2024 LDU Quito LDU Quito 3-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
01.05.2024 Libertad Libertad 2-3 HT 0-3 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
12.11.2023 Libertad Libertad 0-2 HT 0-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
2-1
AWAY LDU Quito
1.84 xG 1.79
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 5
331 Passes 292
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Libertad vs LDU Quito
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad nicked a narrow win over LDU Quito 2-1.

This one beat our numbers. LDU Quito carried 59% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Libertad had 53% of the ball to LDU Quito's 47%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 1.84 to 1.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, LDU Quito led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Libertad and 2.17 for LDU Quito.

What was the final score of Libertad vs LDU Quito?

Libertad 2-1 LDU Quito in the Ecuador - Premier on 15/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs LDU Quito?

Before kick-off our model rated an LDU Quito win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Libertad 18%, draw 23%, LDU Quito 59%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (LDU Quito) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (LDU Quito) ✓ BTTS Yes
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