Motagua vs Marathon Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Motagua v Marathon — Team-Based Signals
Motagua vs Marathon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Motagua and Marathon couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 29% / 35% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marathon led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Motagua and 1.67 for Marathon.
What was the final score of Motagua vs Marathon?
Motagua 1-1 Marathon in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 16/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Motagua vs Marathon?
Before kick-off our model rated a Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Motagua 37%, draw 29%, Marathon 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Motagua), BTTS No went the other way.