Marathon 1-0 Motagua — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
34%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-4.4pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.0pp
34%
Away Win
26%
+7.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.4pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marathon EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Motagua EU Bookmakers 30%
-9% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
1.21/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.33
-13% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
356 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marathon
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Motagua
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
18.08.2025 Motagua Motagua 3-3 HT 1-2 Marathon Marathon HON
30.03.2025 Marathon Marathon 1-1 HT 0-0 Motagua Motagua HON
31.01.2025 Motagua Motagua 2-2 HT 1-0 Marathon Marathon HON
07.11.2024 Marathon Marathon 2-1 HT 1-1 Motagua Motagua HON
02.09.2024 Motagua Motagua 0-1 HT 0-1 Marathon Marathon HON
08.04.2024 Marathon Marathon 1-1 HT 1-0 Motagua Motagua HON
POST-MATCH Marathon vs Motagua
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marathon nicked a narrow win over Motagua 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 34% — and on the day Marathon made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marathon had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Marathon and 1.33 for Motagua.

What was the final score of Marathon vs Motagua?

Marathon 1-0 Motagua in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marathon vs Motagua?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marathon win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Marathon 40%, draw 26%, Motagua 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marathon) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Marathon)
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