Galway United 4-3 Waterford FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 16 Mar 2026

📅16/03/2026 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.72
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.1
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
22%
3.38
6+ Goals
11%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 27% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.21
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
14.3
X/1
18%
4.16
X/2
8%
9.23
X/X
9%
4.98
2/1
9%
23.5
2/2
9%
7.46
2/X
7%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
54%
+0.8pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.5pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+1.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.5pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Galway United EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Waterford FC EU Bookmakers 24%
-7% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -3%
1.37/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.35
-26% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -1%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
302 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 225 · 67%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
26.7 Crosses 17.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Galway United
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Waterford FC
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.26 xG 1.38
46% Ball Possession 54%
17 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
198 Passes 269
64% Pass Accuracy 68%
28 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.11.2025 Waterford FC Waterford FC 1-1 HT 1-1 Galway United Galway United İRL
25.07.2025 Galway United Galway United 2-4 HT 0-1 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
09.05.2025 Waterford FC Waterford FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Galway United Galway United İRL
14.03.2025 Galway United Galway United 1-0 HT 0-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
27.09.2024 Waterford FC Waterford FC 1-2 HT 1-0 Galway United Galway United İRL
12.07.2024 Galway United Galway United 1-0 HT 1-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Galway United
4-3
AWAY Waterford FC
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 11
POST-MATCH Galway United vs Waterford FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Galway United squeezed past Waterford FC 4-3. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Galway United as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Galway United had 44% of the ball to Waterford FC's 56%, shots finished 17-18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Galway United had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Galway United and 1.17 for Waterford FC.

What was the final score of Galway United vs Waterford FC?

Galway United 4-3 Waterford FC in the Ireland - Premier League on 16/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Galway United vs Waterford FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Galway United win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Galway United 55%, draw 22%, Waterford FC 23%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Galway United) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Galway United) ✗ Under 2.5
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