Boulogne 1-1 Chateauroux — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 16 May 2025

📅16/05/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
34%
3.94
Away
16%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
2.29
Over 2.5
41%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.6
No
56%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
4.5
2-3 Goals
38%
1.89
4-5 Goals
14%
2.75
6+ Goals
15%
7.43
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.5 — our 33% vs market 16.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
12%
X/2
4%
X/X
23%
2/1
11%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-6.5pp
34%
Draw
22%
+12.2pp
16%
Away Win
21%
-5.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
40%
+19.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
60%
-19.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
58%
-14.6pp
56%
BTTS No
42%
+14.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boulogne EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Chateauroux EU Bookmakers 25%
-19% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -5%
1.45/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.42
-11% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +0%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
380 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boulogne
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Chateauroux
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
37% Ball Possession 63%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.08.2024 Chateauroux Chateauroux 0-1 HT 0-0 Boulogne Boulogne FR3
25.03.2022 Chateauroux Chateauroux 0-1 HT 0-0 Boulogne Boulogne FR3
22.10.2021 Boulogne Boulogne 1-1 HT 1-1 Chateauroux Chateauroux FR3
24.02.2012 Boulogne Boulogne 0-1 HT 0-1 Chateauroux Chateauroux FR2
23.09.2011 Chateauroux Chateauroux 2-1 HT 0-0 Boulogne Boulogne FR2
13.05.2011 Boulogne Boulogne 3-2 HT 1-1 Chateauroux Chateauroux FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Boulogne
1-1
AWAY Chateauroux
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Boulogne vs Chateauroux
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Boulogne and Chateauroux shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Boulogne at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Boulogne had 61% of the ball to Chateauroux's 39%, shots finished 17-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Boulogne had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Boulogne and 1.00 for Chateauroux.

What was the final score of Boulogne vs Chateauroux?

Boulogne 1-1 Chateauroux in the France - National League 1 on 16/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boulogne vs Chateauroux?

Before kick-off our model rated a Boulogne win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Boulogne 50%, draw 34%, Chateauroux 16%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Boulogne), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Boulogne) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR3 More France - National League 1
16 May 2025
20:30 Aubagne vs Valenciennes Analysis →
20:30 Bourg en Bresse 01 vs Dijon Analysis →
20:30 Le Mans FC vs Versailles Analysis →
20:30 Paris 13 Atletico vs Concarneau Analysis →
20:30 Quevilly vs Sochaux Analysis →
20:30 Nancy vs Rouen Analysis →