Arouca 3-1 Tondela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 16 May 2026

Arouca
3-1 HT 1-0
Tondela
📅16/05/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2025/2026

Arouca vs Tondela Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.8
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
36%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
17%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
32%
+7.4pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.0pp
36%
Away Win
41%
-5.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.2pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arouca v Tondela — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Tondela EU Bookmakers 45%
+2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
1.28/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.06
+11% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / +23%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
305 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 77%
15.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
19.5 Crosses 12.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.9

Arouca vs Tondela Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Tondela
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.86 xG 1.08
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
287 Passes 284
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
12 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
03.01.2026 Tondela Tondela 3-1 HT 2-1 Arouca Arouca POR
19.03.2022 Tondela Tondela 2-2 HT 2-1 Arouca Arouca POR
29.10.2021 Arouca Arouca 2-0 HT 1-0 Tondela Tondela POR
13.05.2017 Arouca Arouca 1-2 HT 1-1 Tondela Tondela POR
08.01.2017 Tondela Tondela 1-2 HT 0-1 Arouca Arouca POR
06.03.2016 Tondela Tondela 0-1 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR

Arouca 3-1 Tondela — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
3-1
AWAY Tondela
1.77 xG 0.62
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
376 Passes 325
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
FAQ Arouca vs Tondela
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Arouca beat Tondela 3-1 in the Portugal - Premier League on 16 May 2026. Half-time: 1-0.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Arouca had 53% of the ball to Tondela's 47%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.77 to 0.62.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arouca have the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Arouca and 1.33 for Tondela.

What was the final score of Arouca vs Tondela?

Arouca 3-1 Tondela in the Portugal - Premier League on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs Tondela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Arouca 40%, draw 25%, Tondela 36%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arouca), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arouca) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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