Famalicao 1-0 Alverca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 16 May 2026

📅16/05/2026 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.53
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
17%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.5
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.2
6+ Goals
10%
11.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 28% vs market 22.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.91
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
4%
15.55
X/1
18%
3.97
X/2
6%
11.35
X/X
8%
5.62
2/1
7%
22.25
2/2
7%
9.36
2/X
10%
17.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
61%
-0.1pp
22%
Draw
22%
-0.3pp
17%
Away Win
17%
+0.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.5pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Famalicao EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Alverca EU Bookmakers 20%
-7% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.63/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.27
-6% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / -8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
367 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 77%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
25.4 Crosses 12.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Famalicao
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Alverca
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.10 xG 2.10
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
426 Passes 316
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 13
28 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.01.2026 Alverca Alverca 1-0 HT 0-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
20.11.2021 Alverca Alverca 1-2 HT 1-0 Famalicao Famalicao POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Famalicao
1-0
AWAY Alverca
0.52 xG 0.45
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 5
358 Passes 365
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
FAQ Famalicao vs Alverca
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Famalicao edged past Alverca 1-0 in the Portugal - Premier League on 16 May 2026. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Famalicao had 50% of the ball to Alverca's 50%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 0.52 to 0.45.

Across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours are even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Famalicao and 1.00 for Alverca.

What was the final score of Famalicao vs Alverca?

Famalicao 1-0 Alverca in the Portugal - Premier League on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Famalicao vs Alverca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Famalicao win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Famalicao 61%, draw 22%, Alverca 17%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Famalicao), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Famalicao) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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