Sporting Braga 2-2 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 16 May 2026

📅16/05/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.72
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
19%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.57
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.15
6+ Goals
11%
10.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.57 — our 28% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.19
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
8%
14.15
X/1 EV+ ✗
25%
4.23
X/2
8%
9.15
X/X
5%
5.38
2/1
8%
21.8
2/2
7%
7.09
2/X
8%
15.55
Value flag · X/1 at 4.23 — our 25% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
54%
+5.4pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.6pp
19%
Away Win
22%
-2.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.5pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela EU Bookmakers 25%
+1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.78/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.17
+20% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +41%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
360 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 80%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
20.6 Crosses 15.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
3W-2D-0L
AWAY Estrela
2.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
2.38 xG 0.93
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
428 Passes 231
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
33 Box Touches 14
23 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.01.2026 Estrela Estrela 3-3 HT 1-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
19.01.2025 Estrela Estrela 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
11.08.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-1 HT 0-0 Estrela Estrela POR
02.03.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-0 HT 0-0 Estrela Estrela POR
28.09.2023 Estrela Estrela 2-4 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
2-2
AWAY Estrela
2.38 xG 0.71
74% Ball Possession 26%
14 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 1
628 Passes 182
91% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 9
15 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Estrela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga and Estrela shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Sporting Braga at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 74% of the ball to Estrela's 26%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 2.38 to 0.71.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.40 goals for Sporting Braga and 1.20 for Estrela.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Estrela?

Sporting Braga 2-2 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 60%, draw 21%, Estrela 19%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sporting Braga) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✓ BTTS Yes
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