Nacional 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 16 May 2026

📅16/05/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
25%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.12
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.5
6+ Goals
11%
14.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 32% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.87
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
22%
4.85
X/2
10%
7.07
X/X
13%
4.51
2/1
10%
25.0
2/2
9%
5.18
2/X
6%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
46%
+3.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.2pp
25%
Away Win
27%
-2.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.2pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 31%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -1%
1.54/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.40
+26% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
313 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 80%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
19.8 Crosses 19.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.99 xG 1.25
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
275 Passes 319
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.01.2026 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POR
03.05.2025 Nacional Nacional 1-2 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
23.12.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 HT 1-1 Nacional Nacional POR
26.04.2021 Nacional Nacional 1-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
21.01.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-1 HT 1-1 Nacional Nacional POR
05.05.2019 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional
2-0
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.94 xG 1.33
34% Ball Possession 66%
5 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
147 Passes 338
67% Pass Accuracy 83%
8 Box Touches 21
8 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nacional vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional beat Vitoria Guimaraes 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nacional as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Nacional had 34% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 66%, shots finished 5-13, expected goals 0.94 to 1.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Nacional and 1.83 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Nacional vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Nacional 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Nacional 49%, draw 26%, Vitoria Guimaraes 25%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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