Nacional vs Vitoria Guimaraes Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Nacional v Vitoria Guimaraes — Team-Based Signals
Nacional vs Vitoria Guimaraes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Vitoria Guimaraes
POR
3-1
HT 1-1
Nacional
POR
2-2
HT 1-0
Nacional
POR
Nacional 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes — Actual Match Statistics
Nacional beat Vitoria Guimaraes 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nacional as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
On the day, Nacional had 34% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 66%, shots finished 5-13, expected goals 0.94 to 1.33.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Nacional and 1.83 for Vitoria Guimaraes.
What was the final score of Nacional vs Vitoria Guimaraes?
Nacional 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Nacional vs Vitoria Guimaraes?
Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Nacional 49%, draw 26%, Vitoria Guimaraes 25%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.