New Mexico United vs FC Tulsa Prediction — Model Probabilities
New Mexico United v FC Tulsa — Team-Based Signals
New Mexico United vs FC Tulsa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
New Mexico United 1-0 FC Tulsa — Actual Match Statistics
New Mexico United squeezed past FC Tulsa 1-0. Level at 0-0 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.
The way our numbers pointed is the way it went: our model had New Mexico United as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.
Under the surface, possession split 70% to 30% in New Mexico United's favour, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.67 to 0.54.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Tulsa led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.33 a game for New Mexico United against 2.33 for FC Tulsa.
New Mexico United vs FC Tulsa Result & Final Score
New Mexico United 1 - 0 FC Tulsa in the USL Championship on 16/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
New Mexico United vs FC Tulsa Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 42%, draw 27%, FC Tulsa 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New Mexico United) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.