İtalya 1-4 Norveç — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 16 Nov 2025

İtalya
1-4 HT 1-0
Norveç
📅16/11/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
World Cup Qualifiers – 2026

İtalya vs Norveç Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.2
2-3 Goals
42%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
2.95
6+ Goals
9%
8.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.94
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
7%
12.25
X/1
18%
5.31
X/2
16%
7.19
X/X
11%
5.25
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.1
2/2
7%
4.71
2/X
6%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.1 — our 8% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
44%
+3.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.8pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.9pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

İtalya v Norveç — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İtalya EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Norveç EU Bookmakers 33%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.79/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.00
-28% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
345 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 78%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.4
12.0 Crosses 21.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.8

İtalya vs Norveç Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İtalya
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Norveç
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.38 xG 1.51
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
478 Passes 328
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.06.2025 Norveç Norveç 3-0 HT 3-0 İtalya İtalya DKE
13.10.2015 İtalya İtalya 2-1 HT 0-1 Norveç Norveç AVŞE
09.09.2014 Norveç Norveç 0-2 HT 0-1 İtalya İtalya AVŞE
04.06.2005 Norveç Norveç 0-0 HT 0-0 İtalya İtalya DKE
04.09.2004 İtalya İtalya 2-1 HT 1-1 Norveç Norveç DKE

İtalya 1-4 Norveç — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İtalya
1-4
AWAY Norveç
1.31 xG 1.59
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
473 Passes 333
88% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 26
23 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH İtalya vs Norveç
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Norveç swept aside İtalya 4-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was İtalya at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, İtalya had 58% of the ball to Norveç's 42%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.31 to 1.59.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, İtalya had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for İtalya and 1.00 for Norveç.

What was the final score of İtalya vs Norveç?

İtalya 1-4 Norveç in the World Cup Qualifiers on 16/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İtalya vs Norveç?

Before kick-off our model rated a İtalya win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split İtalya 47%, draw 25%, Norveç 28%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (İtalya) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (İtalya) ✓ BTTS Yes
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