Willem II 3-0 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 17 Apr 2026

Willem II
3-0 HT 2-0
AZ Alkmaar II
📅17/04/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2025/2026

Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.57
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.89
Over 2.5
60%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.46
No
41%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
6.12
2-3 Goals
39%
2.06
4-5 Goals
28%
2.39
6+ Goals
13%
4.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.92
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
16%
4.49
X/2
5%
10.75
X/X
8%
7.24
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
17.9
2/2
9%
7.22
2/X
6%
15.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.9 — our 12% vs market 3.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
59%
-1.6pp
20%
Draw
21%
-0.5pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+2.1pp
40%
Under 2.5
31%
+9.3pp
60%
Over 2.5
69%
-9.3pp
59%
BTTS Yes
64%
-5.0pp
41%
BTTS No
36%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Willem II v AZ Alkmaar II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Willem II EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 23%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +10%
2.06/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.76
-11% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
389 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 77%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
28.2 Crosses 9.5
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.8

Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar II Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Willem II
3W-1D-1L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
1.15 xG 0.73
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
295 Passes 460
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
20.10.2025 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 4-0 HT 2-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2
12.04.2024 Willem II Willem II 4-1 HT 2-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
29.09.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-2 HT 0-1 Willem II Willem II HOL2
06.03.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-2 HT 0-2 Willem II Willem II HOL2
16.09.2022 Willem II Willem II 1-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2

Willem II 3-0 AZ Alkmaar II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Willem II
3-0
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.43 xG 1.30
42% Ball Possession 58%
19 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 8
289 Passes 420
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 40
15 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Willem II cruised past AZ Alkmaar II 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Willem II as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (60%) landed while both teams to score (59%) missed.

On the day, Willem II had 42% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 58%, shots finished 19-20, expected goals 1.43 to 1.30.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Willem II had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Willem II and 1.40 for AZ Alkmaar II.

What was the final score of Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Willem II 3-0 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 17/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Willem II win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Willem II 58%, draw 20%, AZ Alkmaar II 22%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Willem II), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Willem II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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