De Graafschap 3-1 Cambuur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 17 Apr 2026

📅17/04/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
37%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.89
Over 2.5
57%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.35
No
41%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.12
2-3 Goals
39%
2.06
4-5 Goals
26%
2.39
6+ Goals
14%
4.84
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.04
1/2
6%
23.5
1/X
7%
11.85
X/1
16%
5.87
X/2
17%
6.72
X/X
8%
6.25
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.85
2/2
14%
3.74
2/X
7%
12.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.85 — our 8% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.0pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.4pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+2.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
31%
+11.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
69%
-11.4pp
59%
BTTS Yes
70%
-10.7pp
41%
BTTS No
30%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Cambuur EU Bookmakers 38%
-4% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +2%
1.58/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.32
-5% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
306 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 77%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
24.4 Crosses 17.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Cambuur
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.88 xG 1.48
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
242 Passes 377
71% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.10.2025 Cambuur Cambuur 2-0 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
28.03.2025 Cambuur Cambuur 3-2 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
13.12.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-2 HT 0-1 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
08.03.2024 Cambuur Cambuur 1-2 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
08.12.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-3 HT 1-1 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
30.04.2021 Cambuur Cambuur 1-1 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
3-1
AWAY Cambuur
1.59 xG 1.37
45% Ball Possession 55%
20 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
244 Passes 341
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
32 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs Cambuur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap beat Cambuur 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 42% / 22% / 37% — and on the day De Graafschap made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, De Graafschap had 45% of the ball to Cambuur's 55%, shots finished 20-12, expected goals 1.59 to 1.37.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cambuur led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for De Graafschap and 2.00 for Cambuur.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs Cambuur?

De Graafschap 3-1 Cambuur in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 17/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs Cambuur?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 42%, draw 22%, Cambuur 37%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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