Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Manchester United v Nottingham Forest — Team-Based Signals
Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 0-0
Manchester United
İNP
3-2
HT 1-2
Nottingham Forest
İNP
Manchester United 3-2 Nottingham Forest — Actual Match Statistics
Manchester United squeezed past Nottingham Forest 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Manchester United as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%) came in.
On the day, Manchester United had 48% of the ball to Nottingham Forest's 52%, shots finished 29-11, expected goals 4.57 to 1.88 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Manchester United's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nottingham Forest led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Manchester United and 1.67 for Nottingham Forest.
What was the final score of Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest?
Manchester United 3-2 Nottingham Forest in the England - Premier League on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest?
Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester United win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Manchester United 56%, draw 21%, Nottingham Forest 23%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.