Manchester United 3-2 Nottingham Forest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.57
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.38
Over 2.5
56%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.8
2-3 Goals
41%
1.91
4-5 Goals
25%
2.67
6+ Goals
13%
6.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.92
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
14.3
X/1
19%
4.29
X/2
9%
11.0
X/X
10%
6.43
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
19.6
2/2
9%
8.05
2/X
5%
15.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.6 — our 8% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
60%
-3.6pp
21%
Draw
22%
-0.9pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.0pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.2pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester United EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 21%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -21%
1.92/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.65
+1% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -22%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
419 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 78%
33.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
19.6 Crosses 16.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester United
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Nottingham Forest
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.69 xG 1.01
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
488 Passes 242
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
30 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.11.2025 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-2 HT 0-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
01.04.2025 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-0 HT 1-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
07.12.2024 Manchester United Manchester United 2-3 HT 1-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
28.02.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-1 HT 0-0 Manchester United Manchester United FAK
30.12.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-1 HT 0-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
26.08.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 3-2 HT 1-2 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester United
3-2
AWAY Nottingham Forest
4.57 xG 1.88
48% Ball Possession 52%
29 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
383 Passes 398
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
45 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester United squeezed past Nottingham Forest 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Manchester United as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Manchester United had 48% of the ball to Nottingham Forest's 52%, shots finished 29-11, expected goals 4.57 to 1.88 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Manchester United's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nottingham Forest led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Manchester United and 1.67 for Nottingham Forest.

What was the final score of Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest?

Manchester United 3-2 Nottingham Forest in the England - Premier League on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester United win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Manchester United 56%, draw 21%, Nottingham Forest 23%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Manchester United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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