Newcastle United 3-1 West Ham United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
2.0
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.33
Over 2.5
56%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.49
No
43%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.62
2-3 Goals
42%
1.89
4-5 Goals
26%
2.72
6+ Goals
12%
7.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.74
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
7%
12.5
X/1
14%
5.1
X/2
10%
7.16
X/X
8%
5.69
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.2
2/2
10%
4.62
2/X
7%
13.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.2 — our 10% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
46%
+4.9pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.9pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-2.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
39%
+5.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
61%
-5.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
63%
-5.8pp
43%
BTTS No
37%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY West Ham United EU Bookmakers 33%
+3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
2.11/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.49
+14% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
370 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 79%
34.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
19.9 Crosses 19.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle United
3W-1D-2L
AWAY West Ham United
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
2.15 xG 1.15
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
432 Passes 290
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
34 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.11.2025 West Ham United West Ham United 3-1 HT 2-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
10.03.2025 West Ham United West Ham United 0-1 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
25.11.2024 Newcastle United Newcastle United 0-2 HT 0-1 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
30.03.2024 Newcastle United Newcastle United 4-3 HT 1-2 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
08.10.2023 West Ham United West Ham United 2-2 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
05.04.2023 West Ham United West Ham United 1-5 HT 1-2 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle United
3-1
AWAY West Ham United
1.73 xG 0.95
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 8
9 Corners 1
414 Passes 340
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
43 Box Touches 34
18 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Newcastle United vs West Ham United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United got the better of West Ham United 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Newcastle United as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Newcastle United had 55% of the ball to West Ham United's 45%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.73 to 0.95.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Newcastle United and 1.83 for West Ham United.

What was the final score of Newcastle United vs West Ham United?

Newcastle United 3-1 West Ham United in the England - Premier League on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs West Ham United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 51%, draw 21%, West Ham United 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
17 May 2026
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