Baltika Kaliningrad 1-2 Dinamo Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
34%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.18
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.44
6+ Goals
10%
13.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 29% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.36
1/2
7%
30.0
1/X
9%
12.7
X/1
14%
5.3
X/2
11%
6.11
X/X
10%
4.57
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
16%
4.2
2/X
6%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
+0.1pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+1.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.2pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baltika Kaliningrad EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 37%
+8% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +16%
1.28/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.52
-25% / +64% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -14%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
248 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 75%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
16.4 Crosses 16.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Baltika Kaliningrad
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
1.16 xG 1.51
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
254 Passes 332
69% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.07.2025 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-1 HT 0-1 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUS
11.05.2024 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 2-3 HT 1-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
13.08.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 2-0 HT 0-0 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUS
19.04.2022 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 1-1 HT 0-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Baltika Kaliningrad
1-2
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
1.54 xG 1.18
48% Ball Possession 52%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
208 Passes 251
65% Pass Accuracy 69%
33 Box Touches 12
25 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Baltika Kaliningrad vs Dinamo Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Moscow edged past Baltika Kaliningrad 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 34%) promised a tight game; Dinamo Moscow found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Baltika Kaliningrad had 48% of the ball to Dinamo Moscow's 52%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 1.54 to 1.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Dinamo Moscow led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Baltika Kaliningrad and 1.75 for Dinamo Moscow.

What was the final score of Baltika Kaliningrad vs Dinamo Moscow?

Baltika Kaliningrad 1-2 Dinamo Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baltika Kaliningrad vs Dinamo Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Baltika Kaliningrad win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Baltika Kaliningrad 40%, draw 26%, Dinamo Moscow 34%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Baltika Kaliningrad), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Baltika Kaliningrad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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