Krasnodar 3-0 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
76%
1.22
Draw
15%
5.71
Away
9%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.89
Over 2.5
60%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.28
2-3 Goals
37%
2.09
4-5 Goals
28%
2.43
6+ Goals
14%
4.94
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
48%
1.35
1/2
3%
34.0
1/X
7%
23.5
X/1
19%
3.89
X/2
3%
23.5
X/X
4%
10.05
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.2
2/2
3%
19.0
2/X
4%
27.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.2 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
76%
Home Win
77%
-1.4pp
15%
Draw
14%
+0.5pp
9%
Away Win
8%
+0.7pp
40%
Under 2.5
31%
+9.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
69%
-9.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.8pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 11%
+0% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
2.30/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/2.01
+11% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -15%
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
427 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 72%
32.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
21.2 Crosses 16.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krasnodar
6W-0D-0L
AWAY FK Orenburg
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.70 xG 0.86
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
330 Passes 247
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
30 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.11.2025 Krasnodar Krasnodar 4-0 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUK
05.11.2025 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-3 HT 1-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUK
10.08.2025 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-1 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
17.05.2025 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-2 HT 1-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
03.11.2024 Krasnodar Krasnodar 4-0 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
03.12.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-1 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krasnodar
3-0
AWAY FK Orenburg
2.00 xG 1.01
68% Ball Possession 32%
22 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
448 Passes 178
82% Pass Accuracy 69%
38 Box Touches 15
25 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Krasnodar vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krasnodar swept aside FK Orenburg 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Krasnodar as the likeliest winner at 76%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Krasnodar had 68% of the ball to FK Orenburg's 32%, shots finished 22-8, expected goals 2.00 to 1.01.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Krasnodar had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Krasnodar and 0.50 for FK Orenburg.

What was the final score of Krasnodar vs FK Orenburg?

Krasnodar 3-0 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Premier League on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krasnodar vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Krasnodar win the most likely single outcome at about 76%, with the full match-result split Krasnodar 76%, draw 15%, FK Orenburg 9%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Krasnodar), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Krasnodar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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