CSKA Moskova 3-1 Lokomotiv Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
40%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.43
Over 2.5
51%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.46
No
47%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
4.93
2-3 Goals
38%
1.92
4-5 Goals
24%
2.64
6+ Goals
10%
6.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.87
1/2
6%
22.25
1/X
6%
12.3
X/1
12%
6.5
X/2
17%
5.66
X/X
10%
5.69
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
24.8
2/2
17%
3.13
2/X
8%
12.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.8 — our 9% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
35%
+0.8pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
40%
Away Win
40%
-0.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
38%
+11.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
62%
-11.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
64%
-11.5pp
47%
BTTS No
36%
+11.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CSKA Moskova EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 45%
+5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +0%
1.22/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.36
-4% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -4%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
294 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 78%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.5
15.9 Crosses 16.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CSKA Moskova
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.27 xG 1.06
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
405 Passes 294
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 25
26 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
18.10.2025 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-0 HT 2-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
01.10.2025 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0-0 HT 0-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUK
30.07.2025 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 2-1 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
19.05.2025 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 2-2 HT 2-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
18.08.2024 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 0-1 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
13.04.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-3 HT 1-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CSKA Moskova
3-1
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
1.82 xG 1.71
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
296 Passes 412
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 39
9 Crosses 35
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH CSKA Moskova vs Lokomotiv Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CSKA Moskova beat Lokomotiv Moscow 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 24% / 40%) promised a tight game; CSKA Moskova found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, CSKA Moskova had 43% of the ball to Lokomotiv Moscow's 57%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 1.82 to 1.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for CSKA Moskova and 1.67 for Lokomotiv Moscow.

What was the final score of CSKA Moskova vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

CSKA Moskova 3-1 Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CSKA Moskova vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split CSKA Moskova 36%, draw 24%, Lokomotiv Moscow 40%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
RUS More Russia - Premier League
17 May 2026
18:00 Makhachkala vs Spartak Moskova Analysis →
18:00 Krasnodar vs FK Orenburg Analysis →
18:00 Rostov vs Zenit St. Petersburg Analysis →
18:00 Baltika Kaliningrad vs Dinamo Moscow Analysis →
18:00 Krylya Sovetov vs Akron Analysis →
18:00 FC Sochi vs FC Akhmat Grozny Analysis →