CA Penarol 2-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
23%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.67
Over 2.5
48%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.9
No
46%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
13%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
49%
+0.4pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.4pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-0.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.7pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo) EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +16%
1.51/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/0.80
+4% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +60%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
341 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Penarol
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
14.04.2026 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-2 HT 0-2 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
17.11.2025 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 1-2 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
13.09.2025 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 2-2 HT 2-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
11.09.2025 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URUK
19.06.2025 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 3-2 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
21.03.2025 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-3 HT 0-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Penarol
2-1
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
37% Ball Possession 63%
5 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH CA Penarol vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol squeezed past Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, CA Penarol had 37% of the ball to Liverpool FC (Montevideo)'s 63%, shots finished 5-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool FC (Montevideo) led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for CA Penarol and 2.00 for Liverpool FC (Montevideo).

What was the final score of CA Penarol vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)?

CA Penarol 2-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) in the Uruguay - Premier League on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Penarol vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split CA Penarol 49%, draw 28%, Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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