Koninklijke HFC 3-0 Excelsior Maassluis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Tweede Divisie, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.27
Draw
38%
3.45
Away
30%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
2.0
Over
41%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2-3
41%
4-5
20%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
5%
X/X
22%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
32%
Home Win
40%
-8.1pp
38%
Draw
25%
+13.0pp
30%
Away Win
35%
-4.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
46%
+12.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
54%
-12.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.3pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Koninklijke HFC The Market 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior Maassluis The Market 39%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
0.67/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.51
-59% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -8%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
316 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Koninklijke HFC
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Excelsior Maassluis
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 2
20.04.2024 Koninklijke HFC Koninklijke HFC 1-2 HT 0-1 Excelsior Maassluis Excelsior Maassluis HOLTW
10.02.2024 Excelsior Maassluis Excelsior Maassluis 0-3 HT 0-2 Koninklijke HFC Koninklijke HFC HOLTW
POST-MATCH Koninklijke HFC vs Excelsior Maassluis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Koninklijke HFC cruised past Excelsior Maassluis 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (32% / 38% / 30%) promised a tight game; Koninklijke HFC found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Koninklijke HFC and 1.00 for Excelsior Maassluis.

What was the final score of Koninklijke HFC vs Excelsior Maassluis?

Koninklijke HFC 3-0 Excelsior Maassluis in the Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Koninklijke HFC vs Excelsior Maassluis?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Koninklijke HFC 32%, draw 38%, Excelsior Maassluis 30%. The final score 3-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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