Fuerte San Francisco 1-3 Alianza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — El Salvador - Primera Liga, 17 Nov 2025

📅17/11/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
15%
4.48
Draw
21%
3.45
Away
64%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
13%
1/X
6%
X/1
4%
X/2
22%
X/X
10%
2/1
3%
2/2
29%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
15%
Home Win
19%
-4.7pp
21%
Draw
26%
-4.5pp
64%
Away Win
55%
+9.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-2.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+2.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.2pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fuerte San Francisco EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza EU Bookmakers 58%
-1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -11%
0.68/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/0.71
-30% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +33%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
260 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fuerte San Francisco
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Alianza
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
15.09.2025 Alianza Alianza 1-0 HT 0-0 Fuerte San Francisco Fuerte San Francisco ELSAL
19.05.2025 Alianza Alianza 2-0 HT 0-0 Fuerte San Francisco Fuerte San Francisco ELSAL
16.05.2025 Fuerte San Francisco Fuerte San Francisco 0-1 HT 0-0 Alianza Alianza ELSAL
24.04.2025 Fuerte San Francisco Fuerte San Francisco 1-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Alianza ELSAL
27.02.2025 Alianza Alianza 2-0 HT 1-0 Fuerte San Francisco Fuerte San Francisco ELSAL
01.11.2024 Alianza Alianza 2-0 HT 0-0 Fuerte San Francisco Fuerte San Francisco ELSAL
POST-MATCH Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza got the better of Fuerte San Francisco 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Alianza as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Fuerte San Francisco and 1.33 for Alianza.

What was the final score of Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza?

Fuerte San Francisco 1-3 Alianza in the El Salvador - Primera Liga on 17/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza?

Before kick-off our model rated an Alianza win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Fuerte San Francisco 15%, draw 21%, Alianza 64%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alianza) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alianza) ✗ Under 2.5
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