IFK Mariehamn 1-0 KuPS Kuopio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 18 Jun 2025

📅18/06/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.65
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
54%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.18
Over 2.5
54%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.41
2-3 Goals
41%
1.94
4-5 Goals
24%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
9.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
8.46
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
20.85
1/X
6%
16.85
X/1
9%
11.0
X/2
24%
4.22
X/X
10%
6.2
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
21%
1.98
2/X
7%
15.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.85 — our 9% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
19%
+4.6pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.5pp
54%
Away Win
59%
-5.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.9pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY KuPS Kuopio EU Bookmakers 62%
-13% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +16%
0.82/1.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.81/1.38
-15% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +35%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
209 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 428 · 82%
14.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.1
15.3 Crosses 25.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Mariehamn
1W-2D-3L
AWAY KuPS Kuopio
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.99 xG 1.85
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 10
275 Passes 520
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
12 Box Touches 38
12 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 1
23.04.2025 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 4-1 HT 2-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
25.08.2024 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 3-0 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
16.06.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-3 HT 0-2 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİK
13.04.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-2 HT 1-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
05.07.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-1 HT 0-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİK
27.06.2023 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 0-1 HT 0-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IFK Mariehamn
1-0
AWAY KuPS Kuopio
0.62 xG 2.18
26% Ball Possession 74%
12 Total Shots 24
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 10
133 Passes 534
62% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 59
18 Crosses 42
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH IFK Mariehamn vs KuPS Kuopio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

IFK Mariehamn squeezed past KuPS Kuopio 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was KuPS Kuopio at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, IFK Mariehamn had 26% of the ball to KuPS Kuopio's 74%, shots finished 12-24, expected goals 0.62 to 2.18 — on chances, KuPS Kuopio could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, KuPS Kuopio led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for IFK Mariehamn and 2.17 for KuPS Kuopio.

What was the final score of IFK Mariehamn vs KuPS Kuopio?

IFK Mariehamn 1-0 KuPS Kuopio in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 18/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Mariehamn vs KuPS Kuopio?

Before kick-off our model rated an KuPS Kuopio win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split IFK Mariehamn 23%, draw 23%, KuPS Kuopio 54%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (KuPS Kuopio), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (KuPS Kuopio) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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