HJK Helsinki 2-1 VPS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 18 Jul 2026

📅18/07/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
4.06
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
2.91
6+ Goals
11%
8.81
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.79
1/2
4%
30.5
1/X
5%
12.15
X/1
15%
5.08
X/2
11%
7.23
X/X
9%
5.17
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
22.65
2/2
17%
4.82
2/X
8%
12.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.65 — our 7% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.1pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.7pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+2.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.6pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY VPS EU Bookmakers 32%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +4%
1.33/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.57
-23% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +18%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
369 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
19.3 Crosses 14.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HJK Helsinki
3W-1D-2L
AWAY VPS
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.87 xG 1.34
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
461 Passes 268
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.05.2026 VPS VPS 2-1 HT 0-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
05.07.2025 VPS VPS 0-2 HT 0-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
26.04.2025 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 3-1 HT 2-0 VPS VPS FİN
20.09.2024 VPS VPS 1-1 HT 0-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
01.09.2024 VPS VPS 1-3 HT 1-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
17.05.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-2 HT 0-1 VPS VPS FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HJK Helsinki
2-1
AWAY VPS
2.03 xG 0.51
10 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
285 Passes 334
17 Box Touches 15
7 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH HJK Helsinki vs VPS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HJK Helsinki squeezed past VPS 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had HJK Helsinki as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 2.03 to 0.51 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold HJK Helsinki's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for HJK Helsinki and 1.17 for VPS.

What was the final score of HJK Helsinki vs VPS?

HJK Helsinki 2-1 VPS in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 18/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HJK Helsinki vs VPS?

Before kick-off our model rated a HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split HJK Helsinki 45%, draw 23%, VPS 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HJK Helsinki), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FİN More Finland - Veikkausliiga
18 Jul 2026
17:00 SJK Seinajoki vs KuPS Kuopio Analysis →
17:00 Oulu vs Gnistan Analysis →