Basel 3-0 Winterthur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
71%
1.3
Draw
17%
5.15
Away
12%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
2.96
Over 2.5
65%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.66
No
41%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
7.1
2-3 Goals
36%
2.25
4-5 Goals
29%
2.5
6+ Goals
17%
4.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.47
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
5%
20.0
X/1
24%
4.05
X/2
5%
18.4
X/X
8%
9.6
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
18.3
2/2
4%
13.9
2/X
4%
22.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.3 — our 13% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
71%
Home Win
72%
-1.4pp
17%
Draw
16%
+0.7pp
12%
Away Win
12%
+0.7pp
35%
Under 2.5
30%
+5.3pp
65%
Over 2.5
70%
-5.3pp
59%
BTTS Yes
56%
+3.3pp
41%
BTTS No
44%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Basel EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Winterthur EU Bookmakers 15%
-2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +14%
2.23/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/2.09
+1% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -7%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
445 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 74%
31.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
21.1 Crosses 12.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Basel
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Winterthur
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.51 xG 0.62
61% Ball Possession 39%
24 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
486 Passes 284
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
37 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.07.2025 Basel Basel 1-1 HT 0-1 Winterthur Winterthur HAZ
30.03.2025 Winterthur Winterthur 0-2 HT 0-0 Basel Basel İSV
02.11.2024 Basel Basel 5-0 HT 3-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
26.10.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 1-6 HT 0-3 Basel Basel İSV
16.03.2024 Basel Basel 1-1 HT 0-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
30.01.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 1-3 HT 0-1 Basel Basel İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Basel
3-0
AWAY Winterthur
4.29 xG 0.58
60% Ball Possession 40%
29 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 1
365 Passes 226
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
52 Box Touches 17
26 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Basel vs Winterthur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Basel cruised past Winterthur 3-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Basel as the likeliest winner at 71%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (65%) landed while both teams to score (59%) missed.

On the day, Basel had 60% of the ball to Winterthur's 40%, shots finished 29-8, expected goals 4.29 to 0.58.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Basel had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Basel and 0.67 for Winterthur.

What was the final score of Basel vs Winterthur?

Basel 3-0 Winterthur in the Switzerland - Super League on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Basel vs Winterthur?

Before kick-off our model rated a Basel win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split Basel 71%, draw 17%, Winterthur 12%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Basel), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Basel) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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