Krylya Sovetov 1-1 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.05
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.61
No
42%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.98
2-3 Goals
40%
1.88
4-5 Goals
23%
3.2
6+ Goals
13%
10.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.91
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
10%
13.3
X/1
16%
4.99
X/2
10%
6.78
X/X
8%
5.34
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.1
2/2
15%
4.65
2/X
5%
13.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.1 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
45%
+1.6pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.9pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.3pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krylya Sovetov EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 34%
+2% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -15%
1.36/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.28
+9% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -12%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
285 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 78%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
18.5 Crosses 18.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krylya Sovetov
2W-3D-1L
AWAY FK Orenburg
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.92 xG 1.20
49% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
305 Passes 309
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
34 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
27.04.2025 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 2-0 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
20.10.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-2 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
04.05.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-1 HT 1-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
28.10.2023 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 1-1 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
02.04.2023 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 1-1 HT 1-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
16.07.2022 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-4 HT 1-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krylya Sovetov
1-1
AWAY FK Orenburg
1.17 xG 0.73
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
347 Passes 207
73% Pass Accuracy 66%
28 Box Touches 19
32 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Krylya Sovetov vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krylya Sovetov and FK Orenburg couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Krylya Sovetov at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Krylya Sovetov had 60% of the ball to FK Orenburg's 40%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.17 to 0.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Krylya Sovetov had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Krylya Sovetov and 1.33 for FK Orenburg.

What was the final score of Krylya Sovetov vs FK Orenburg?

Krylya Sovetov 1-1 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Premier League on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krylya Sovetov vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Krylya Sovetov win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Krylya Sovetov 46%, draw 22%, FK Orenburg 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Krylya Sovetov), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Krylya Sovetov) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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