Spartak Moskova 1-1 Rostov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒15:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
21%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.25
2-3 Goals
43%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.73
6+ Goals
8%
15.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 28% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.19
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.55
X/1
18%
4.16
X/2
9%
9.68
X/X
11%
4.96
2/1
8%
24.0
2/2
7%
7.99
2/X
7%
16.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
56%
-0.5pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.2pp
20%
Away Win
20%
+0.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.3pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Rostov EU Bookmakers 23%
-9% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -16%
1.47/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.32
-19% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
362 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 71%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
19.2 Crosses 16.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Moskova
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Rostov
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.14 xG 0.89
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
387 Passes 163
83% Pass Accuracy 65%
27 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 4
18.09.2025 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 1-2 HT 1-0 Rostov Rostov RUK
30.07.2025 Rostov Rostov 0-2 HT 0-2 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUK
15.05.2025 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 1-2 HT 0-1 Rostov Rostov RUSK
06.04.2025 Rostov Rostov 0-3 HT 0-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
27.11.2024 Rostov Rostov 2-1 HT 2-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUK
05.11.2024 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 0-1 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Moskova
1-1
AWAY Rostov
1.12 xG 1.06
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 3
356 Passes 204
77% Pass Accuracy 68%
22 Box Touches 26
26 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Spartak Moskova vs Rostov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Moskova and Rostov couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Spartak Moskova at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Spartak Moskova had 61% of the ball to Rostov's 39%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.12 to 1.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rostov led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Spartak Moskova and 1.17 for Rostov.

What was the final score of Spartak Moskova vs Rostov?

Spartak Moskova 1-1 Rostov in the Russia - Premier League on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Moskova vs Rostov?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Spartak Moskova 55%, draw 24%, Rostov 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Spartak Moskova), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Spartak Moskova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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