Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Cruzeiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 19 Mar 2026

📅19/03/2026 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.09
Draw
23%
3.11
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.68
Over 2.5
47%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.68
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
4.04
6+ Goals
11%
19.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.03
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
12.9
X/1
18%
4.81
X/2
6%
6.83
X/X
6%
4.08
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
16%
5.24
2/X
6%
13.65
Value flag · 1/X at 12.9 — our 12% vs market 4.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
44%
+5.5pp
23%
Draw
29%
-5.3pp
27%
Away Win
27%
-0.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.2pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 31%
+5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +15%
1.64/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.17
-4% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +36%
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
320 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 82%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
22.9 Crosses 17.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Paranaense
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Cruzeiro
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.01 xG 1.87
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
420 Passes 321
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 24
23 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.10.2024 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 3-0 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
27.06.2024 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
01.12.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
29.07.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 3-3 HT 1-2 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
07.11.2019 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
28.07.2019 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
2-1
AWAY Cruzeiro
1.18 xG 1.43
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
320 Passes 359
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Cruzeiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense edged past Cruzeiro 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Paranaense as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 48% of the ball to Cruzeiro's 52%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 1.18 to 1.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Paranaense had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.00 for Cruzeiro.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Cruzeiro?

Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Cruzeiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 19/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Cruzeiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 49%, draw 23%, Cruzeiro 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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