Palmeiras 2-1 Botafogo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 19 Mar 2026

📅19/03/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.49
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
18%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.52
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.18
6+ Goals
12%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.52 — our 25% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.86
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
6%
15.95
X/1
21%
3.92
X/2
6%
11.9
X/X
11%
5.73
2/1
13%
22.25
2/2
7%
9.92
2/X
6%
18.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
62%
-3.1pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.4pp
17%
Away Win
16%
+1.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.8pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo EU Bookmakers 19%
-2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +9%
1.82/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.55
+6% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +37%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
363 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 77%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
24.6 Crosses 14.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Botafogo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.42 xG 1.35
52% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
358 Passes 349
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 4
18.08.2025 Botafogo Botafogo 0-1 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
28.06.2025 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo KDK
30.03.2025 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
27.11.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-3 HT 0-1 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
22.08.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-2 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo LKU
15.08.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 2-1 HT 2-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
2-1
AWAY Botafogo
1.92 xG 0.51
52% Ball Possession 48%
19 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
346 Passes 303
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
30 Box Touches 13
10 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Botafogo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras squeezed past Botafogo 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Palmeiras had 52% of the ball to Botafogo's 48%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 1.92 to 0.51 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Palmeiras's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Palmeiras and 1.17 for Botafogo.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Botafogo?

Palmeiras 2-1 Botafogo in the Brazil - Serie A on 19/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Botafogo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 59%, draw 23%, Botafogo 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ BTTS Yes
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