Vasco da Gama 3-2 Fluminense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 19 Mar 2026

📅19/03/2026 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.29
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.62
Over 2.5
50%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.95
No
47%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.53
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
22%
4.31
6+ Goals
10%
22.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.63
1/2
8%
28.5
1/X
10%
14.0
X/1
8%
7.08
X/2
13%
4.66
X/X
13%
3.94
2/1
9%
34.0
2/2
19%
2.94
2/X
5%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
27%
+5.1pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.4pp
40%
Away Win
44%
-3.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
58%
-7.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
42%
+7.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.7pp
47%
BTTS No
53%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Fluminense EU Bookmakers 48%
+7% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -14%
1.23/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/1.20
+30% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -30%
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
293 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 426 · 85%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
20.5 Crosses 16.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasco da Gama
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Fluminense
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.19 xG 0.85
49% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
346 Passes 380
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
15.12.2025 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BRK
12.12.2025 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-1 HT 0-1 Fluminense Fluminense BRK
21.10.2025 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
25.05.2025 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 1-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
11.08.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
20.04.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
3-2
AWAY Fluminense
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
341 Passes 325
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
POST-MATCH Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vasco da Gama edged past Fluminense 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Vasco da Gama made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Vasco da Gama had 52% of the ball to Fluminense's 48%, shots finished 16-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.00 for Fluminense.

What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense?

Vasco da Gama 3-2 Fluminense in the Brazil - Serie A on 19/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 32%, draw 28%, Fluminense 40%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fluminense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fluminense) ✓ BTTS Yes
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