Portland Timbers 4-2 Los Angeles Galaxy — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 19 Sep 2024

📅19/09/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
3.17
Over 2.5
58%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.32
No
43%
3.08
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
8.17
2-3 Goals
38%
2.33
4-5 Goals
28%
2.38
6+ Goals
12%
4.14
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.66
1/2
6%
24.85
1/X
5%
12.3
X/1
16%
5.46
X/2
12%
7.42
X/X
8%
6.82
2/1
8%
19.35
2/2
15%
4.06
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
12.4
Value flag · 2/X at 12.4 — our 10% vs market 5.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.5pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.7pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+1.8pp
42%
Under 2.5
28%
+13.5pp
58%
Over 2.5
72%
-13.5pp
57%
BTTS Yes
72%
-14.5pp
43%
BTTS No
28%
+14.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portland Timbers EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Los Angeles Galaxy EU Bookmakers 34%
+6% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.56/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.56
+15% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -5%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
356 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 430 · 84%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
18.7 Crosses 15.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portland Timbers
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Los Angeles Galaxy
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.02 xG 1.61
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
315 Passes 434
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.07.2024 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 3-2 HT 1-0 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
01.10.2023 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 3-3 HT 3-2 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
25.03.2023 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 0-0 HT 0-0 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy ABD
19.06.2022 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 1-1 HT 0-1 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
03.04.2022 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 1-3 HT 0-2 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy ABD
17.10.2021 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 2-1 HT 0-0 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portland Timbers
4-2
AWAY Los Angeles Galaxy
3.06 xG 2.29
39% Ball Possession 61%
22 Total Shots 24
12 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
354 Passes 598
84% Pass Accuracy 90%
29 Box Touches 41
12 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Portland Timbers vs Los Angeles Galaxy
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portland Timbers got the better of Los Angeles Galaxy 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Portland Timbers as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Portland Timbers had 39% of the ball to Los Angeles Galaxy's 61%, shots finished 22-24, expected goals 3.06 to 2.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Los Angeles Galaxy led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Portland Timbers and 2.00 for Los Angeles Galaxy.

What was the final score of Portland Timbers vs Los Angeles Galaxy?

Portland Timbers 4-2 Los Angeles Galaxy in the USA - Major League on 19/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portland Timbers vs Los Angeles Galaxy?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portland Timbers win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Portland Timbers 44%, draw 24%, Los Angeles Galaxy 33%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portland Timbers), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Portland Timbers) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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