Lobos UPNFM 2-2 Marathon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 19 Sep 2025

📅19/09/2025 · 🕒02:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.5
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
46%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
16%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
25%
+2.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
46%
Away Win
49%
-2.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.3pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Marathon EU Bookmakers 53%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -15%
0.89/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.05
-9% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -9%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
294 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 432 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lobos UPNFM
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Marathon
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
04.05.2025 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 0-0 HT 0-0 Marathon Marathon HON
02.03.2025 Marathon Marathon 3-3 HT 2-1 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
27.10.2024 Marathon Marathon 1-2 HT 1-1 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
18.08.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 2-0 HT 0-0 Marathon Marathon HON
10.03.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 0-1 HT 0-1 Marathon Marathon HON
21.01.2024 Marathon Marathon 3-1 HT 3-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
POST-MATCH Lobos UPNFM vs Marathon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lobos UPNFM and Marathon couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Marathon at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lobos UPNFM and 1.33 for Marathon.

What was the final score of Lobos UPNFM vs Marathon?

Lobos UPNFM 2-2 Marathon in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 19/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lobos UPNFM vs Marathon?

Before kick-off our model rated an Marathon win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Lobos UPNFM 28%, draw 26%, Marathon 46%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Marathon), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Marathon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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