Vaduz 3-2 Aarau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 19 Dec 2025

Vaduz
3-2 HT 1-1
Aarau
📅19/12/2025 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.19
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
30%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.23
Over 2.5
61%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%
1.5
No
36%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.4
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
26%
2.78
6+ Goals
16%
7.76
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
42%
+6.8pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.2pp
29%
Away Win
33%
-3.5pp
39%
Under 2.5
41%
-2.0pp
61%
Over 2.5
59%
+2.0pp
64%
BTTS Yes
62%
+1.0pp
36%
BTTS No
38%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vaduz EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Aarau EU Bookmakers 37%
+6% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +30%
1.79/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/1.65
+23% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
356 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 81%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
15.8 Crosses 12.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vaduz
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Aarau
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.19 xG 1.96
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
364 Passes 309
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 30
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
13.09.2025 Aarau Aarau 1-0 HT 1-0 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
18.04.2025 Aarau Aarau 2-2 HT 0-1 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
23.02.2025 Vaduz Vaduz 0-1 HT 0-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
05.10.2024 Aarau Aarau 0-0 HT 0-0 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
20.09.2024 Vaduz Vaduz 2-5 HT 2-3 Aarau Aarau İSV2
03.05.2024 Vaduz Vaduz 2-1 HT 0-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vaduz
3-2
AWAY Aarau
2.46 xG 3.36
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
389 Passes 246
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
25 Box Touches 32
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vaduz vs Aarau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vaduz nicked a narrow win over Aarau 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Vaduz as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (64%) came in.

On the day, Vaduz had 58% of the ball to Aarau's 42%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 2.46 to 3.36 — the balance of chances actually favoured Aarau.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aarau led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Vaduz and 1.67 for Aarau.

What was the final score of Vaduz vs Aarau?

Vaduz 3-2 Aarau in the Switzerland Challenge League on 19/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vaduz vs Aarau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vaduz win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Vaduz 48%, draw 22%, Aarau 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vaduz), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vaduz) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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