FC Dallas 5-3 Minnesota United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 20 Jun 2024

📅20/06/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.9
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under
52%
2.03
Over
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1
25%
3.87
2-3
42%
1.83
4-5
22%
3.18
6+
11%
10.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.55
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.0
X/1
15%
4.53
X/2
8%
7.87
X/X
16%
5.02
2/1
7%
23.15
2/2
10%
5.56
2/X
6%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-5.7pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.6pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.3pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Dallas EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Minnesota United EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +18%
1.39/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.67
-1% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
378 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 78%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
16.3 Crosses 15.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Dallas
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Minnesota United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.98 xG 0.75
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
498 Passes 307
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
09.06.2024 Minnesota United Minnesota United 1-1 HT 1-1 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
01.05.2023 Minnesota United Minnesota United 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
26.02.2023 FC Dallas FC Dallas 0-1 HT 0-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
18.10.2022 FC Dallas FC Dallas 1-1 HT 0-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
03.09.2022 Minnesota United Minnesota United 0-3 HT 0-0 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
23.05.2022 FC Dallas FC Dallas 1-2 HT 0-1 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Dallas
5-3
AWAY Minnesota United
1.67 xG 3.32
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 21
9 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 7
370 Passes 506
83% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 27
2 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Dallas vs Minnesota United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Dallas beat Minnesota United 5-3. Half-time: 2-1. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had FC Dallas as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 5-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, FC Dallas had 43% of the ball to Minnesota United's 57%, shots finished 9-21, expected goals 1.67 to 3.32 — the balance of chances actually favoured Minnesota United.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Minnesota United led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FC Dallas and 0.83 for Minnesota United.

What was the final score of FC Dallas vs Minnesota United?

FC Dallas 5-3 Minnesota United in the USA - Major League on 20/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Dallas vs Minnesota United?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Dallas win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split FC Dallas 43%, draw 30%, Minnesota United 27%. The final score 5-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Dallas), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Dallas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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