FC Kuressaare 2-1 Parnu JK Vaprus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 20 Jul 2025

📅20/07/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.99
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.95
Over 2.5
56%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.68
No
45%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
9%
X/2
17%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
30%
+6.0pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.0pp
42%
Away Win
44%
-2.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.9pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Kuressaare EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 48%
+2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -30% / -30%
1.22/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.34
-12% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / -5%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
270 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Kuressaare
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.06.2025 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 2-1 HT 1-0 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
18.04.2025 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 1-0 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
06.10.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 3-1 HT 1-1 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
28.07.2024 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 1-1 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
28.05.2024 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 2-2 HT 2-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
17.03.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 3-2 HT 0-1 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
POST-MATCH FC Kuressaare vs Parnu JK Vaprus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Kuressaare squeezed past Parnu JK Vaprus 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Parnu JK Vaprus at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Parnu JK Vaprus led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FC Kuressaare and 1.83 for Parnu JK Vaprus.

What was the final score of FC Kuressaare vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

FC Kuressaare 2-1 Parnu JK Vaprus in the Estonia - Premium League on 20/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Kuressaare vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Parnu JK Vaprus win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split FC Kuressaare 36%, draw 22%, Parnu JK Vaprus 42%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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