Monagas 1-0 Estudiantes De Merida — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Venezuela - Premier League, 20 Jul 2025

📅20/07/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
25%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.95
Over 2.5
44%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
17%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
47%
-1.5pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.9pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-1.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.2pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monagas EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida EU Bookmakers 30%
-3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -11%
1.13/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.42
+8% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -28%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
266 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 77%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
20.8 Crosses 18.8
3.5 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monagas
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.82 xG 1.79
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
204 Passes 312
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 5
07.02.2025 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 2-0 HT 0-0 Monagas Monagas VEN
11.11.2024 Monagas Monagas 2-3 HT 2-1 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida VEN
04.11.2024 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 2-0 HT 1-0 Monagas Monagas VEN
23.08.2024 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 2-1 HT 2-1 Monagas Monagas VEN
02.03.2024 Monagas Monagas 3-2 HT 1-1 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida VEN
19.08.2023 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 1-1 HT 0-0 Monagas Monagas VEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monagas
1-0
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida
1.19 xG 0.28
54% Ball Possession 46%
20 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 3
207 Passes 147
65% Pass Accuracy 52%
18 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Monagas vs Estudiantes De Merida
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monagas squeezed past Estudiantes De Merida 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Monagas as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Monagas had 54% of the ball to Estudiantes De Merida's 46%, shots finished 20-4, expected goals 1.19 to 0.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Estudiantes De Merida led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Monagas and 2.00 for Estudiantes De Merida.

What was the final score of Monagas vs Estudiantes De Merida?

Monagas 1-0 Estudiantes De Merida in the Venezuela - Premier League on 20/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monagas vs Estudiantes De Merida?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monagas win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Monagas 46%, draw 29%, Estudiantes De Merida 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monagas), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Monagas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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