El Paso Locomotive 2-1 Sacramento Republic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.08
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
41%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.75
Over
45%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2.98
2-3
41%
1.77
4-5
20%
3.91
6+
10%
17.55
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.98 — our 29% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
13%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
14%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
32%
Home Win
29%
+3.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
41%
Away Win
45%
-4.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
53%
+1.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
47%
-1.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Paso Locomotive The Market 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Sacramento Republic The Market 49%
-10% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +11%
1.31/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.15
-31% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +66%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
333 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 78%
17.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
17.1 Crosses 16.4
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Paso Locomotive
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Sacramento Republic
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.07 xG 1.55
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
433 Passes 282
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
15.08.2024 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 2-0 HT 1-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
17.09.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 1-0 HT 0-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
12.03.2023 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 0-1 HT 0-1 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
19.05.2022 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 1-0 HT 0-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
13.03.2022 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 3-1 HT 1-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
12.09.2021 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 2-0 HT 1-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Paso Locomotive
2-1
AWAY Sacramento Republic
2.65 xG 1.77
48% Ball Possession 52%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
298 Passes 324
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 17
10 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Paso Locomotive nicked a narrow win over Sacramento Republic 2-1.

Our pre-match lean was Sacramento Republic at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, El Paso Locomotive had 48% of the ball to Sacramento Republic's 52%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 2.65 to 1.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sacramento Republic led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for El Paso Locomotive and 1.17 for Sacramento Republic.

What was the final score of El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic?

El Paso Locomotive 2-1 Sacramento Republic in the USL Championship on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split El Paso Locomotive 32%, draw 27%, Sacramento Republic 41%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sacramento Republic) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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