Indy Eleven 3-2 Birmingham Legion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.92
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.97
Over 2.5
54%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.69
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
3.28
6+ Goals
13%
11.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
48%
+1.9pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.0pp
27%
Away Win
27%
+0.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
47%
-0.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
53%
+0.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.0pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Indy Eleven EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham Legion EU Bookmakers 30%
-13% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +3%
1.42/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.39
-23% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
346 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
19.6 Crosses 14.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Indy Eleven
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Birmingham Legion
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.11 xG 1.86
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
334 Passes 389
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.06.2024 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 0-1 HT 0-1 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
10.08.2023 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 4-0 HT 1-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
18.06.2023 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 2-1 HT 0-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
13.10.2022 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 3-1 HT 2-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
11.09.2022 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 4-3 HT 3-1 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
11.10.2021 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 3-1 HT 1-1 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
POST-MATCH Indy Eleven vs Birmingham Legion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Indy Eleven nicked a narrow win over Birmingham Legion 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Indy Eleven as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Indy Eleven and 1.83 for Birmingham Legion.

What was the final score of Indy Eleven vs Birmingham Legion?

Indy Eleven 3-2 Birmingham Legion in the USL Championship on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Indy Eleven vs Birmingham Legion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Indy Eleven win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Indy Eleven 50%, draw 23%, Birmingham Legion 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Indy Eleven), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Indy Eleven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
USLP More USL Championship
20 Oct 2024
00:00 Tampa Bay Rowdies vs North Carolina Analysis →
00:00 Loudoun United vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Analysis →
00:00 FC Tulsa vs Hartford Athletic Analysis →
00:00 San Antonio vs Louisville City Analysis →
00:00 Orange County SC vs New Mexico United Analysis →
00:00 Monterey Bay vs Colorado Springs Analysis →