Northampton Town 1-2 Leyton Orient — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 21 Feb 2026

📅21/02/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.53
Draw
22%
3.18
Away
39%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.71
Over 2.5
51%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.81
No
46%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.71
2-3 Goals
39%
1.7
4-5 Goals
24%
3.83
6+ Goals
10%
17.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.01
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
13%
5.63
X/2
17%
5.33
X/X
9%
4.29
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
31.0
2/2
16%
3.69
2/X
6%
13.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 31.0 — our 8% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
36%
+3.6pp
22%
Draw
28%
-5.8pp
39%
Away Win
37%
+2.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
55%
-5.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
45%
+5.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.6pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Northampton Town EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Leyton Orient EU Bookmakers 40%
-1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.14/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.25
-4% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +21%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
227 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 70%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
19.3 Crosses 13.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Northampton Town
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Leyton Orient
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.98 xG 1.13
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
174 Passes 343
59% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
30.08.2025 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 0-1 HT 0-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
08.03.2025 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 1-2 HT 0-2 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
19.10.2024 Northampton Town Northampton Town 1-0 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN1
13.02.2024 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 4-3 HT 1-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
24.10.2023 Northampton Town Northampton Town 2-2 HT 0-1 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN1
02.01.2023 Northampton Town Northampton Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Northampton Town
1-2
AWAY Leyton Orient
0.97 xG 0.90
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
254 Passes 181
72% Pass Accuracy 68%
37 Box Touches 13
43 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Northampton Town vs Leyton Orient
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leyton Orient edged past Northampton Town 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 22% / 39% — and on the day Leyton Orient made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Northampton Town had 58% of the ball to Leyton Orient's 42%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 0.97 to 0.90.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Northampton Town had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Northampton Town and 1.17 for Leyton Orient.

What was the final score of Northampton Town vs Leyton Orient?

Northampton Town 1-2 Leyton Orient in the England - 1st Division on 21/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Northampton Town vs Leyton Orient?

Before kick-off our model rated a Northampton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Northampton Town 39%, draw 22%, Leyton Orient 39%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (39/22/39) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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