Plymouth Argyle 5-2 Cardiff City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 21 Feb 2026

📅21/02/2026 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.8
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
43%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.63
No
43%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.52
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.07
6+ Goals
12%
10.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.35
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
23.95
1/X
5%
13.3
X/1
9%
6.4
X/2
15%
5.11
X/X
13%
5.05
2/1
8%
29.0
2/2
20%
3.08
2/X
6%
12.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.95 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+0.6pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
44%
Away Win
42%
+1.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
57%
-0.1pp
43%
BTTS No
43%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Plymouth Argyle EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Cardiff City EU Bookmakers 46%
+7% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +18%
1.23/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.08
+3% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +31%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
283 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 72%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
18.3 Crosses 18.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Plymouth Argyle
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Cardiff City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.07 xG 1.26
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
337 Passes 363
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.08.2025 Cardiff City Cardiff City 4-0 HT 2-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İN1
22.02.2025 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 1-1 HT 0-1 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
19.10.2024 Cardiff City Cardiff City 5-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
20.01.2024 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 3-1 HT 1-1 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
26.12.2023 Cardiff City Cardiff City 2-2 HT 1-1 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
21.07.2017 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 0-1 HT 0-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Plymouth Argyle
5-2
AWAY Cardiff City
2.95 xG 1.63
29% Ball Possession 71%
16 Total Shots 18
9 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
116 Passes 372
63% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Plymouth Argyle vs Cardiff City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Plymouth Argyle cruised past Cardiff City 5-2. Half-time: 3-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Cardiff City at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Plymouth Argyle had 29% of the ball to Cardiff City's 71%, shots finished 16-18, expected goals 2.95 to 1.63.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cardiff City led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Plymouth Argyle and 2.33 for Cardiff City.

What was the final score of Plymouth Argyle vs Cardiff City?

Plymouth Argyle 5-2 Cardiff City in the England - 1st Division on 21/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Plymouth Argyle vs Cardiff City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cardiff City win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Plymouth Argyle 33%, draw 24%, Cardiff City 44%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cardiff City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cardiff City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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