RB Leipzig 2-2 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 21 Feb 2026

RB Leipzig
2 - 2 HT 2 - 0
Borussia Dortmund
📅21/02/2026 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.9
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under
37%
2.33
Over Pick
63%
1.58
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.48
No
38%
2.45
Total Goals
0-1
17%
4.71
2-3
42%
1.9
4-5
30%
2.69
6+
11%
7.07
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.57
1/2
2%
30.0
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1
15%
4.95
X/2
9%
7.62
X/X
13%
5.77
2/1 ✗
3%
20.7
2/2
16%
4.98
2/X
5%
13.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.7 — our 3% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.

RB Leipzig v Borussia Dortmund — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME RB Leipzig The Market 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund The Market 31%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
1.99 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.17
1.37 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.73
Great Attack Strength Weak
Weak Defense Strength Bad
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
362 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 78%
30 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19
15 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RB Leipzig
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.95 xG 1.59
43% Ball Possession 57%
17 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
339 Passes 464
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
35 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.10.2025 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-1 HT 1-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
15.03.2025 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-0 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
02.11.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-1 HT 1-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
27.04.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 4-1 HT 2-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
09.12.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-3 HT 1-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
05.04.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-0 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AFK

RB Leipzig 2-2 Borussia Dortmund — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
2 - 2
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.90 xG 1.61
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
374 Passes 279
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
39 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 4
REVIEW RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

a 2-2 draw left RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund with a point apiece. From 2-0 down at the break, the game flipped completely after half-time.

Our pre-match lean was RB Leipzig at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (62%), and both reads landed as well.

By the numbers, possession split 55% to 45% in RB Leipzig's favour, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.90 to 1.61.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.17 a game for RB Leipzig against 1.00 for Borussia Dortmund.

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund Result & Final Score

RB Leipzig 2 - 2 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 21/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 49%, draw 24%, Borussia Dortmund 27%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (RB Leipzig) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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