Union Berlin 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 21 Feb 2026

Union Berlin
1 - 0 HT 1 - 0
Bayer Leverkusen
📅21/02/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.84
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
39%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under
52%
1.75
Over
48%
1.93
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2.89
2-3
46%
1.73
4-5
21%
3.75
6+
5%
16.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.59
1/2
3%
28.0
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
12%
6.36
X/2
14%
5.1
X/X
18%
4.26
2/1
2%
33.5
2/2
22%
3.26
2/X
6%
12.7
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.

Union Berlin v Bayer Leverkusen — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Union Berlin The Market 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen The Market 45%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Strong
1.27 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.36
1.24 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.33
Average Attack Strength Average
Average Defense Strength Average
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
281 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 443 · 82%
20 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2

Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Berlin
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.54 xG 1.80
32% Ball Possession 68%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
231 Passes 632
73% Pass Accuracy 90%
13 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
04.10.2025 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
12.04.2025 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
30.11.2024 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-2 HT 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
06.04.2024 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-1 HT 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
12.11.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
29.04.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-0 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1

Union Berlin 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Berlin
1 - 0
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
0.55 xG 0.94
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 5
210 Passes 471
69% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 39
5 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Union Berlin came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Bayer Leverkusen 1-0.

Our pre-match split (31% / 30% / 39%) promised a tight game; Union Berlin found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 48% and both teams to score at 53%.

Under the surface, Union Berlin had 35% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 65%, shots finished 8-16, expected goals 0.55 to 0.94.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Union Berlin and 1.50 for Bayer Leverkusen.

Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen Result & Final Score

Union Berlin 1 - 0 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 21/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 31%, draw 30%, Bayer Leverkusen 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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