Colwyn Bay 3-1 Penybont — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 21 Feb 2026

📅21/02/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.02
Draw
20%
3.35
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
1.86
Over 2.5
64%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
66%
1.75
No
34%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.05
2-3 Goals
32%
1.72
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
32%
3.43
6+ Goals
14%
13.75
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.43 — our 32% vs market 22.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
7%
2/1
10%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+2.2pp
20%
Draw
26%
-5.8pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+3.7pp
36%
Under 2.5
50%
-14.2pp
64%
Over 2.5
50%
+14.2pp
66%
BTTS Yes
53%
+12.9pp
34%
BTTS No
47%
-12.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Colwyn Bay EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Penybont EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +19%
1.49/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.36
-9% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
336 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Colwyn Bay
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Penybont
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
29.11.2025 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay 5-4 HT 4-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
27.09.2025 Penybont Penybont 1-0 HT 1-0 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GAL
16.03.2024 Penybont Penybont 5-0 HT 1-0 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GAL
03.02.2024 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay 1-2 HT 0-1 Penybont Penybont GAL
25.11.2023 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay 2-1 HT 0-1 Penybont Penybont GAL
09.09.2023 Penybont Penybont 0-1 HT 0-0 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GAL
POST-MATCH Colwyn Bay vs Penybont
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Colwyn Bay saw off Penybont 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Colwyn Bay as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (66%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Colwyn Bay and 2.17 for Penybont.

What was the final score of Colwyn Bay vs Penybont?

Colwyn Bay 3-1 Penybont in the Wales - Premier League on 21/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Colwyn Bay vs Penybont?

Before kick-off our model rated a Colwyn Bay win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Colwyn Bay 48%, draw 20%, Penybont 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Colwyn Bay), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Colwyn Bay) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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