Trans Narva 2-1 Parnu JK Vaprus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 21 Mar 2026

📅21/03/2026 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.8
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
52%
+0.1pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.2pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.0pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Trans Narva EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 28%
-24% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
0.99/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/0.98
-46% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +73%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
331 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Trans Narva
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
18.10.2025 Trans Narva Trans Narva 1-1 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
12.07.2025 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-0 HT 0-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
11.05.2025 Trans Narva Trans Narva 4-2 HT 1-1 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
23.04.2025 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-2 HT 0-2 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
27.10.2024 Trans Narva Trans Narva 1-1 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
20.07.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-0 HT 0-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Trans Narva
2-1
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Trans Narva vs Parnu JK Vaprus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Trans Narva nicked a narrow win over Parnu JK Vaprus 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Trans Narva as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Trans Narva had 56% of the ball to Parnu JK Vaprus's 44%, shots finished 14-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Trans Narva had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Trans Narva and 0.83 for Parnu JK Vaprus.

What was the final score of Trans Narva vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Trans Narva 2-1 Parnu JK Vaprus in the Estonia - Premium League on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Trans Narva vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Trans Narva win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Trans Narva 52%, draw 22%, Parnu JK Vaprus 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Trans Narva), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Trans Narva) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
EST1 More Estonia - Premium League
21 Mar 2026
13:30 Nomme JK Kalju vs FC Kuressaare Analysis →
13:30 Nomme United vs JK Tammeka Tartu Analysis →