Defensor Sporting vs Nacional de Football Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Defensor Sporting v Nacional de Football — Team-Based Signals
Defensor Sporting vs Nacional de Football Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Defensor Sporting
URU
2-2
HT 1-1
Nacional de Football
URU
Defensor Sporting 2-1 Nacional de Football — Actual Match Statistics
Defensor Sporting squeezed past Nacional de Football 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Nacional de Football at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Defensor Sporting had 46% of the ball to Nacional de Football's 54%, shots finished 8-7.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Defensor Sporting and 1.67 for Nacional de Football.
What was the final score of Defensor Sporting vs Nacional de Football?
Defensor Sporting 2-1 Nacional de Football in the Uruguay - Premier League on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Defensor Sporting vs Nacional de Football?
Before kick-off our model rated an Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Defensor Sporting 28%, draw 28%, Nacional de Football 44%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.