Montevideo Wanderers 2-1 Danubio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 21 Mar 2026

📅21/03/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
39%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.51
Over 2.5
43%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
17%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.1pp
27%
Draw
30%
-2.3pp
39%
Away Win
38%
+1.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-5.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+5.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.0pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montevideo Wanderers EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Danubio EU Bookmakers 42%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -2%
0.89/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.05
-20% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
250 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 65%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.0 Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montevideo Wanderers
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Danubio
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.23 xG 0.35
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
513 Passes 169
84% Pass Accuracy 66%
22 Box Touches 9
20 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 3
06.09.2025 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 0-2 HT 0-2 Danubio Danubio URU
16.03.2025 Danubio Danubio 2-2 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
29.09.2024 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 2-2 HT 0-0 Danubio Danubio URU
24.03.2024 Danubio Danubio 0-2 HT 0-1 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
07.03.2024 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 0-1 HT 0-0 Danubio Danubio CON CSA
30.11.2023 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 3-0 HT 1-0 Danubio Danubio URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montevideo Wanderers
2-1
AWAY Danubio
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Montevideo Wanderers vs Danubio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montevideo Wanderers edged past Danubio 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 27% / 39% — and on the day Montevideo Wanderers made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Montevideo Wanderers had 40% of the ball to Danubio's 60%, shots finished 12-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Montevideo Wanderers and 1.17 for Danubio.

What was the final score of Montevideo Wanderers vs Danubio?

Montevideo Wanderers 2-1 Danubio in the Uruguay - Premier League on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montevideo Wanderers vs Danubio?

Before kick-off our model rated an Danubio win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Montevideo Wanderers 33%, draw 27%, Danubio 39%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Danubio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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