Alfreton Town vs Buxton Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Alfreton Town v Buxton — Team-Based Signals
Alfreton Town vs Buxton Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 1-1
Buxton
İCON
0-0
HT 0-0
Alfreton Town
İCON
3-0
HT 1-0
Buxton
İCON
3-0
HT 2-0
Buxton
HAZ
Alfreton Town 3-2 Buxton — Actual Match Statistics
Alfreton Town squeezed past Buxton 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 31% / 36% — and on the day Alfreton Town made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Alfreton Town had 36% of the ball to Buxton's 64%, shots finished 9-6.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alfreton Town had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Alfreton Town and 0.83 for Buxton.
What was the final score of Alfreton Town vs Buxton?
Alfreton Town 3-2 Buxton in the England - Conference on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Alfreton Town vs Buxton?
Before kick-off our model rated an Buxton win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Alfreton Town 34%, draw 31%, Buxton 36%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.