Fredrikstad 3-1 Sandefjord — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
26%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.17
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
24%
3.88
6+ Goals
11%
16.6
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.88 — our 24% vs market 21.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.82
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
12%
4.67
X/2
9%
7.31
X/X
13%
4.66
2/1
10%
25.5
2/2
12%
5.59
2/X
8%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
47%
-0.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
26%
Away Win
26%
-0.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.9pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fredrikstad EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Sandefjord EU Bookmakers 30%
+12% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -10%
1.56/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.80
+11% / +57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -5%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
296 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 78%
34.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
19.1 Crosses 18.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fredrikstad
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Sandefjord
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.84 xG 0.85
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
305 Passes 464
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 32
13 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 0
01.12.2024 Sandefjord Sandefjord 0-1 HT 0-0 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOR
21.06.2024 Sandefjord Sandefjord 4-2 HT 1-0 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad HAZ
28.04.2024 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 1-0 HT 1-0 Sandefjord Sandefjord NOR
08.03.2024 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 2-0 HT 1-0 Sandefjord Sandefjord HAZ
27.09.2016 Sandefjord Sandefjord 2-1 HT 0-1 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOR1
30.04.2016 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 1-2 HT 0-0 Sandefjord Sandefjord NOR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fredrikstad
3-1
AWAY Sandefjord
1.46 xG 1.73
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 8
210 Passes 418
71% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 33
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fredrikstad beat Sandefjord 3-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fredrikstad as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Fredrikstad had 36% of the ball to Sandefjord's 64%, shots finished 9-18, expected goals 1.46 to 1.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fredrikstad and 1.33 for Sandefjord.

What was the final score of Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?

Fredrikstad 3-1 Sandefjord in the Norway - Eliteserien on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fredrikstad win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Fredrikstad 46%, draw 27%, Sandefjord 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fredrikstad), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fredrikstad) ✓ BTTS Yes
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