AC Horsens 4-1 Esbjerg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 21 Apr 2026

📅21/04/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.33
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.82
Over 2.5
41%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.0
2-3 Goals
43%
1.71
4-5 Goals
18%
3.47
6+ Goals
10%
14.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 29% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.49
1/2
8%
30.0
1/X
5%
13.05
X/1
10%
5.33
X/2
15%
5.88
X/X
17%
4.54
2/1
10%
27.5
2/2
14%
4.06
2/X
6%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
39%
-5.1pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
51%
+7.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
49%
-7.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.0pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AC Horsens EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 37%
-18% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -5%
1.13/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.87
-27% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / -29%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
341 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 67%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
16.9 Crosses 17.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AC Horsens
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Esbjerg
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.39 xG 1.48
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
266 Passes 356
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.02.2026 Esbjerg Esbjerg 2-1 HT 0-1 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
20.09.2025 AC Horsens AC Horsens 1-0 HT 1-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
03.05.2025 Esbjerg Esbjerg 0-1 HT 0-1 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
18.04.2025 AC Horsens AC Horsens 3-2 HT 2-2 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
14.03.2025 AC Horsens AC Horsens 2-1 HT 1-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
04.08.2024 Esbjerg Esbjerg 0-1 HT 0-1 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AC Horsens
4-1
AWAY Esbjerg
1.25 xG 1.74
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 9
323 Passes 378
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 44
19 Crosses 30
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AC Horsens vs Esbjerg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AC Horsens swept aside Esbjerg 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (34% / 29% / 37%) promised a tight game; AC Horsens found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AC Horsens had 46% of the ball to Esbjerg's 54%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 1.25 to 1.74 — on chances, Esbjerg could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AC Horsens had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for AC Horsens and 0.83 for Esbjerg.

What was the final score of AC Horsens vs Esbjerg?

AC Horsens 4-1 Esbjerg in the Denmark 1st Division on 21/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AC Horsens vs Esbjerg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Esbjerg win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split AC Horsens 34%, draw 29%, Esbjerg 37%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Esbjerg), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Esbjerg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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