FK Tukums 2000 1-1 BFC Daugavpils — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 21 Apr 2026

📅21/04/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.08
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
47%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.86
Over 2.5
52%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
24%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
29%
+1.1pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.7pp
47%
Away Win
45%
+1.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
50%
-1.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
50%
+1.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.6pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Tukums 2000 EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 49%
+10% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -5%
1.14/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.04
+2% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -12%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
268 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 78%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.7
15.6 Crosses 20.0
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Tukums 2000
1W-2D-3L
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.04 xG 1.25
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
289 Passes 270
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.08.2025 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 0-1 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
21.06.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-2 HT 0-2 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
30.04.2025 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 0-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
07.03.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 3-0 HT 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
21.09.2024 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 0-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
03.07.2024 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 1-2 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Tukums 2000
1-1
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.30 xG 0.68
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
297 Passes 322
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH FK Tukums 2000 vs BFC Daugavpils
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Tukums 2000 and BFC Daugavpils couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was BFC Daugavpils at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, FK Tukums 2000 had 47% of the ball to BFC Daugavpils's 53%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.30 to 0.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, BFC Daugavpils led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for FK Tukums 2000 and 1.17 for BFC Daugavpils.

What was the final score of FK Tukums 2000 vs BFC Daugavpils?

FK Tukums 2000 1-1 BFC Daugavpils in the Latvia - Virsliga on 21/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Tukums 2000 vs BFC Daugavpils?

Before kick-off our model rated an BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split FK Tukums 2000 30%, draw 23%, BFC Daugavpils 47%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (BFC Daugavpils), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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